Compiled by Pierre Williams for Show House   |   Issue 18  |  26th September 2008

 

showhouse.co.uk offers free adverts to redundant housebuilders

“The slump in the new homes market has seen a lot of outstanding industry professionals lose their jobs. Individuals, looking for new jobs and opportunities in the housebuilding sector and its ancillary services, can, subject to content being approved by Show House, list their credentials for free online at www.showhouse.co.uk," said Rupert Bates, editorial director of Show House.

Please send your advertisement together with your name, email and contact telephone number to
at@globespanmedia.com. If you have any industry friends or former colleagues out of work who do not receive our newsletter please forward this opportunity.

 


New Homebuyer Protection Plan
A code of conduct and redress scheme is to be set up following the OFT investigation into housebuilding. Although the OFT dismissed claims of landbanking and agreed the industry was broadly competitive, it concluded buyers needed “more protection when buying a new home”.

“We have worked hard with the industry to help it develop a new approach to self-regulation that will improve consumer protection,” said John Fingleton, chief executive of the OFT.

The report added that many of the faults with newly built homes were quickly fixed but said that some homeowners suffered “significant detriment, distress and inconvenience” if there were major faults or several problems with their property – especially it they related to heating or plumbing. The sales process for new homes was also “not without problems”, it added.

And reservation fees and the clarity of information given to homebuyers had prompted some concerns. The HBF, NHBC and CML are among those agreeing to create a code of conduct and scheme to give dissatisfied owners some redress. The scheme will include clear guidelines to ensure that consumers can get problems fixed quickly and with minimum disruption.

A statutory system will be introduced – paid for by the industry – if this is unsuccessful, the OFT said.

SH Note: As reported in last week’s newsletter, this is great news. We’re still waiting for the details of the plan to be worked out though….

“Brickor Mortis” Sees Sales Plunge 60%
The number of home sales has plunged 60% in a year, according to official figures from HMRC.
Just 62,000 found a buyer in August, compared to more than 140,000 a year before.

Seema Shah, property economist from Capital Economics, said: “The speed and magnitude of the fall in housing market activity has been unprecedented,” she said. “What does seem clear is that there is no let-up in sight for this market correction. The floor for house prices is still some way off.”

In a further sign of the crisis, which has been nicknamed “brickor mortis”, the number of mortgages being handed out has also fallen off a cliff. In August, only 21,086 got a loan, down 63 per cent in a year and the smallest number since records began more than a decade ago, according to figures from the BBA.

The number of homeowners who are managing to remortgage when their current loan deal runs out is also falling. In August it was 47,765, the lowest number for seven years.

SH Note: When newspapers haven’t anything new to report, they invent a new catchphrase, hence “Brickor Mortis” – probably the worst catchphrase in the world.

Enlarged Lloyds may cut most competitive rates
Some of the best mortgage rates in the market are likely to disappear as a result of the takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB.

Analysts say the deal to create the UK’s largest bank, will have little need to fight for market share by offering competitive rates. And they expect a significant reduction in the number of mortgage and savings products on offer, as a result.

“If the new combined superbank has less of a requirement for retail deposits than HBOS, then you may well see the likes of Birmingham Midshires products playing a less prominent role in best-buy charts,” said Andrew Hagger at Moneynet.co.uk.

The combined bank will have nearly 30% of the mortgage market, and analysts predict that the more peripheral and aggressively priced arms of HBOS, such as Intelligent Finance and Birmingham Midshires may be jettisoned when the takeover is complete.

Between their six major brands, Lloyds and HBOS offer more than 70 retail savings accounts and more than 500 mortgage products.

However, any streamlining of HBOS and Lloyds’ rates is more likely to affect savings than the mortgage market, where there is less duplication, according to Michelle Slade at Moneyfacts.

Brokers expect Lloyds to maintain all the existing mortgage brands but reduce the overall number of mortgage products.

Nine out of ten Estate Agents say…
The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) says the collapse in sales last month can be squarely blamed on the Chancellor’s indecision on stamp duty.

Sales achieved per estate agent dropped to just five on average in August, from six the month before, and less than half the level transacted a year previously.

More than nine in ten estate agents polled by the NAEA said government dithering had led to greater uncertainty.

“August was a month of indecision and this evidently has had a profound effect on the market, as many consumers adopted a ‘wait and see’ attitude while waiting for a decision from the government on stamp duty,” said Chris Brown, NAEA president.

NAEA members also reported a decrease in the number of houses available, the number of sales agreed and levels of first-time buyers. There was, however, an improvement in the average difference between the asking and sale price, and also the level of agreed sales falling through.
First-time buyers comprised an average of 8.3 per cent of sales, compared to 10.7 per cent in July. Demand appeared resilient, however, with the number of house hunters registered with estate agents rising from an average of 192 per agent in July to 207 in August.

 

CML Ditches House Price Forecast
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), whose house price forecasts have been among the UK’s most optimistic, has thrown in the towel, saying conditions are too difficult to make predictions, and that no improvement is likely until 2010.

The CML’s last forecast, made in May, was for prices to be 7% lower in the fourth quarter than last year. But indices from Halifax and Nationwide, both CML members, suggest that prices are already down by more than 10% on the year.

 “While we accept that our forecasts currently understate the likely magnitude of the house price correction in the UK this year, we believe it is futile to update them in current market conditions,” the CML said.

Halifax and Nationwide are forecasting peak to trough declines of 20 to 25% and some private sector economists are predicting even steeper falls.

 

£10 Million Notting Hill Home Repossessed
If the fear of repossession is something that is supposed to afflict only the lower-paid and the sub-prime, then the news that it has happened with an £11.6million London mansion will make some people smile.

The six-bedroom house on Ilchester Place in the wealthy enclave of Holland Park has been repossessed and put on the market at £10 million. The property was owned by Robert Bonnier, 38, who shot to fame in the dot-com boom a decade ago with Scoot.com.

Tim Blenkin, the Mayfair-based estate agent, said: “There are five potential repossessions in Mayfair this year, which is unheard of.”

Mortgage lenders issued 39,078 claims for repossession from June to August this year, 17% more than the same period last year, according to Ministry of Justice figures.

FSA Rescue of B&B in Doubt
Attempts by the FSA to find a buyer for Bradford & Bingley are understood to be floundering and that no deal to sell the buy-to-let specialist is imminent.

The FSA is believed to have approached at least three potential bidders, including National Australia Bank (NAB), which owns the Clydesdale and Yorkshire banks, ING, the Dutch bank that operates ING Direct in Britain, and Banco Santander, the owner of the Abbey. It is understood that neither NAB nor Santander would be willing buyers for B&B. ING’s interest was unclear last night.

B&B said that it was not in takeover talks – or in financial difficulty. “We’re not aware of anything in connection with these three banks,” B&B said. “Our funding foundations are solid and we’re well capitalised.”

B&B’s finances are believed to be secure for the medium term, a source said, but it may still need to seek a buyer at some stage. Sharp declines in B&B’s share price and persistent speculation that it could be the next casualty of the credit crunch spurred the FSA to action.

B&B’s shares plumbed record lows last week after Moody’s downgraded the bank’s debt to one notch above junk. It cited dependence on buy-to-let and self-certification mortgages, which have higher default rates than traditional home loans.

 

Agents Believe Homeowners Will Take Houses off Market
The number of homes for sale is tipped to fall as homeowners seek to avoid the further price slides.

Some agents had reported that a rush of homes for sale in recent months and that a fall in prices had prompted some interest from bargain-hunters. But they now reckon the latest round of credit-crunch pain will further restrict the supply of mortgages and will further knock confidence.

Miles Shipside of Rightmove, said that buyers now required “bravery in the face of the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets”. Liam Bailey, of estate agency Knight Frank has predicted an atmosphere of further uncertainty and no recovery before next spring.

A monthly survey of asking prices by Rightmove, suggests average prices fell by a further £2,378, or 1%, in the month to September 13.

Brick Production Down to 1940s Level
Experts believe fewer than two billion bricks will be made this year – the first time this has happened in over 60 years.

For the past two years, the figures have stood at 2.4 billion. Two of the biggest companies, Ibstock and Wienerberger, have announced that they are closing plants and axing jobs.

And on Thursday, the UK’s biggest brick manufacturer, Ibstock, announced it would close factories at Roughdales in Merseyside and Funton in Kent, while its factory in Ellistown, Leicestershire will be mothballed.

The UK’s third biggest brick manufacturer – Wienerberger – announced that 71 jobs face the axe at its plant in Kidderminster.

Further shutdowns of plants are expected between Christmas and February. Pat Furr, operations director of Wienerberger UK, said the company could not rule out further closures and directly blamed the poor housing market and rising energy costs as the reason behind it.

His words were echoed by Hanson’s communication manager David Weeks, who said the UK's second biggest brick manufacturer was in exactly the same situation.

He said: “The housebuilders have put up their shutters and gone home. This industry relies on a conveyor-belt system. The builders used to take the bricks on a daily basis. But as soon as it comes to a standstill, we have no chance.”

Dr Noble Francis, economics director of the Construction Products Association, said: “The housing market has been hit incredibly hard and the number of homes built is at its lowest since 1945. There has been a domino effect and bricks form a critical part of the building process. Everyone is affected from the housebuilders through to the manufacturers.”

 

Lloyds Promises to Keep Lending to FTBs
Lloyds TSB has given the government a pledge that it will keep lending to first-time buyers, in return for assurances that its £12 billion bid for HBOS, announced today, will escape the scrutiny of the FSA.

Sir Victor Blank, the chairman of Lloyds TSB, revealed that he struck the deal with Gordon Brown at a City drinks party on Monday. Brown promised that the deal would not be investigated if the enlarged bank continued to provide funds to would-be homeowners. In an attempt to calm concerns, the FSA said the deal would “enhance finance stability”.

The secretary of state for business, John Hutton, confirmed that the government would override competition law on public interest grounds to “ensure the stability of the UK financial system”.
Blank said it would have “impossible to contemplate” launching a takeover bid for HBOS which then would have been subjected to a 12-month competition investigation.

Shareholders in HBOS will receive 0.83 Lloyds TSB shares for every one HBOS share, which could to lead wide fluctuations in the value of the deal before it completes early next year.

In an indication of how hastily the deal had been hatched, there was no specific information on which of the brands would survive from a group that will own names ranging from Scottish Widows and Clerical Medical to Halifax and Bank of Scotland.

Redrow Buyout Rumour is “Bollocks”
City analysts have dismissed rumours that housebuilder Redrow is about to be bought by a rival as “bollocks”.

Redrow was linked to a takeover by Persimmon, Barratt, Bovis and Bellway after a surge in its share price in recent days. But analysts said the most likely explanation for the jump was short sellers going back to the market to buy shares after the collapse of Lehman.

One analyst said: “The rumour is that Lehman had lent out 16% of Redrow shares to short sellers. When it collapsed they had to close out their positions. The best word to describe the prospect of a takeover by Barratt or someone else is ‘bollocks’. Housebuilders aren’t even buying land at the moment so why would they want a PLC with all the associated overheads? Added to that there are too many question marks over the price of land at the moment.”

Hedge fund Tosca holds a 27% in Redrow, which analysts believe fuelled the rumours, together with the recent consolidation in the banking sector.

 

Join the debate

Will the findings of the recent OFT report have any effect on the current market?

Yes                  No

Last week, we asked if you thought the Lloyds TSB’s takeover of HBOS would have a direct impact on the housing market. All of you thought it would and Rory Harpur of Crestmore Homes had this to say: "Yes, HBOS has a very high exposure not only to the residential mortgage market but also to developers. With the conservative approach of Lloyds over the past few years I feel we will see the group being very selective when lending to developers, the result of this would once again impact on the number of unit built a year."

If you have any burning issues you would like us to include in future debates, or you would like to comment on this or any previous debates, please email us at debate@showhouse.co.uk

 

The Zero Carbon Column

"It has been a quiet month in the life of this superhero. Nobody’s bothering to save the planet; they are more concerned with saving their jobs. I did ask some of the bankers at Lehman Brothers leaving their desks with cardboard boxes full of their possessions if they would be recycling the boxes, but the green air suddenly turned blue. "

Zero Carbon is showhouse.co.uk’s environmental e-columnist. The superhero, who saves the planet, leaving no footprint – or indeed paw print, can be read exclusively on www.showhouse.co.uk.


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